In the Year 2050: Are We Doing Enough?
By Tom Carter, Senior Associate
The year is 2050. Your child or your grandchild is mature and perhaps they have children of their own. They are making choices and seeking control over their life. But that control is governed by the world that surrounds them.
How different is their environment from the one in which you grew up? How many of those changes are for the better and how many represent significant losses? Does the beach where you learned to body surf still exist? Does the mountain where you learned to ski still have any snow?
How about the forest where you learned to listen for birds? How about the birds themselves?
How many of these losses could have been avoided if each of us had made different decisions between 2020 and 2050? How will our children and grandchildren judge us for our inaction when we had full knowledge of the need to change our behavior?
In 2020, the answers to all but the last of these questions are generally knowable. Since the 1980s, climatologists and other experts have accurately predicted the changes that we are currently experiencing due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Their ability to predict our future based on various emission scenarios has only gotten sharper.
We have a pretty good sense of what the future will hold if future emissions increase, decrease, or stabilize. The table below shows how various future emission scenarios can produce dramatic variation in a few key climate change impacts. The projections are taken from the consensus findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s most authoritative body of scientists and other experts on the topic.
This brief illustratration does not begin to describe the intricate web of climate impacts that we have control over. It might even be difficult for people to comprehend how it impacts them. For example, projected changes in precipitation are complex and highly variable depending upon latitude, altitude, topography, and season. Generally greater increases in global temperature will result in increased mean precipitation in the tropics and decreased precipitation in the rest of the world. But droughts and extreme precipitation events will be much more common and variable all over the world. Hotter and more humid air over the oceans will result in more tropical storms. For 15,000 years of stable global temperatures, agriculture has thrived due to predictable, moderate precipitation patterns, but the increasingly frequent droughts and floods brought on by climate change are devastating for most crops. Even in areas with increased annual rainfall, evaporation will also increase, often leading to net reductions in soil moisture.
Ocean acidification could endanger life on Earth more than any other of climate change’s myriad impacts.
Once again, the degree of acidification will be highly dependent on how each of us behaves moving forward. Minimal emission increases could limit reductions in mean ocean pH from the current 8.1 to 8.0 in 2100, while scenarios with greater emission increases are projected to drive pH as low as 7.7 by century’s end. The seas can probably survive at a pH level of 8.0. But a level of 7.7 would greatly exacerbate the already ongoing death of reefs and other marine ecosystems, which would devastate the food chain for humans and virtually every other living land and sea organism. In addition, it would diminish the oceans’ ability to absorb carbon, creating a powerful negative feedback loop.
Climate change will have many more detrimental impacts beyond those projections described above, sea level rise, due to both thermal expansion and global ice melt, will inundate low-lying human population centers over the entire planet. More complex impacts such as feedback loops, ocean circulation patterns, tipping points, and unanticipated changes are far more difficult to model precisely. But they all share the characteristic of cause and effect: the more greenhouse gases humans emit, the worse the impacts will be.
Whether climate change is happening or will continue to happen is beyond debate
The evidence-based projections leave room for complacency among some. Commonly heard responses include:
Since climate will change due to past emissions even if we cut future emissions to zero, why should we bother to reduce at all?
There are seven billion people on Earth, so the positive actions of a few hundred million in a few countries—much less of an individual—are destined to to be swamped by the negative actions of the rest of the world’s human population.
While these claims are based on factual foundations, they are simplistic and short sighted to a degree that is both cynical and dangerous, standing as an admission to future generations that we are unwilling to make small adjustments to our lifestyles, even if the cost is rendering their only home uninhabitable.
Climate change is not binary; it is incremental. More emissions will result in more dire impacts, and reduced emissions will mitigate those impacts. Thankfully global leaders have committed to take steps to lessen the impact of emissions on a global scale. Reducing methane emissions is a critical element of the EU’s goals for 2050 climate neutrality, 55% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030, and zero-pollution. All of these targets are important components of the European Green Deal. World leaders are committed to a greener future: Europe aims to be the first climate-neutral continent in the world by 2050 - they are joined in this ambition by Japan, South Africa and China, who aims to reach this target by 2060. The President-elect has committed to rejoining the Paris agreement, which is a welcome collaborative response to climate change.
Each of us can make a difference
So each of us can take steps to lessen the blow to our heirs. If we think of these steps in positive terms, we can encourage others to take them and can foster a groundswell of support for policies to encourage and incentivize more sustainable behavior.
So what can we do to enable our children and grandchildren to live in the healthiest biosphere possible? As with the problem of climate change, the solutions need not be seen as binary or black-and-white. Doing something productive is always better than doing nothing.
Here are a few of the many possible constructive steps that each of us can take:
Think about your energy use: is a given act of expending electricity or fuel necessary and can it be done more efficiently?
If you can afford it, consider investing in renewable energy; the financial payback calculation is only one factor to consider.
Walk, ride a bike, take transit, or share a car with a friend whenever possible, and combine errands to minimize car usage.
Think about your purchases: are they necessary? Will you still use them months from now? Are they manufactured and packaged in a sustainable way?
Whenever possible, eat healthy, local, non-processed foods.
Invest in companies and vote for leaders who support sustainable products and policies.
In a supportive, positive, and non-judgemental way, educate your friends and family members as to what they can do to protect the current and future well being of themselves and their children.
None of these simple measures requires any “real” sacrifice. In fact, most of them make us healthier, wealthier, and more engaged in our communities. And each of them can help you become part of the solution. Your children and grandchildren will thank you.